In the last two games against the Phillies, one player has gone 5 for 8 with two home runs, a diving catch, a statement made on the field and fiery talk off the field. This player has raised his average 46 points since September 3. He’s not a September call-up or a rookie, but a familiar face.
His name is Carlos Beltran. He’s nearing the end of its sixth season with the Mets, with questions about whether there will be a seventh. Looking back at his time in orange and blue, two things stand out:
1) He is a remarkably good baseball player.
2) He has been treated horribly by a ridiculous organization and too many of its fans.
Beltran’s 2009 was marred by injuries, as were the seasons of many of his teammates. But he came back late in the year, and I had hope that he might be whole in 2010. But then January brought unhappy news: Beltran had opted for knee surgery in Colorado, and wouldn’t resume baseball activities until April. The Mets were livid, fuming that he hadn’t had permission.
My reaction was pretty straightforward: I was disappointed, but then I remembered how the Mets had handled injuries to Jose Reyes and other players during the horror show of 2009. Remember all that? Remember how players were day-to-day, would sit on the bench without going on the DL, would re-emerge for a brief, ineffective game or two, then go on the DL for lengthy periods? Remember how medical diagnoses relating to the Mets seemed to have more to do with spin than reality? After all that, and the pussyfooting around Madoff, and Dave Howard’s word games about obstructed views, I wasn’t inclined to believe a word the Mets said.
Beltran didn’t come back from knee surgery until the All-Star break, joining the Mets in San Francisco for an 11-game West Coast swing. The Mets went 2-9, and if you listened to talk radio you’d have immediately concluded that the problem was Beltran. (Without Beltran, by the way, the Mets had ended the first half of the season with a 3-9 skid.)
Yes, it was pretty obvious that Beltran had returned too soon from a long layoff — his timing wasn’t there and he’d lost a step in the outfield, hampered by the surgery or his knee brace or both. But the analysis from the troglodyte wing of the city’s columnists and the mouth-breathers on the FAN had little to do with his surgically repaired knee and a lot to do with the supposed quality of his heart. It was the same barber-chair stuff it’s always been: Beltran plays without passion, he’s listless, he’s passive, not a leader but a cancer.
One of the great things about advanced stats is they allow you to test your impressions against reality, showing you where your gut is correct and where your eyes are deceiving you or your prejudices are getting in the way. This stuff will never be even fifth or sixth nature to me, let alone second, but one stat I love is WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. It’s an ideal tool for figuring out how rosters should be constructed, and for seeing who’s worth his salary and who isn’t. (Here’s a basic guide to WAR from our new pals at Yahoo Sports’ Big League Stew, and here’s Joe Posnanski on why he likes WAR.)
So here’s Carlos Beltran. Basically, a player with a WAR of 2.0 or above is worthy of being an everyday player, and one with a WAR above 5.0 is a star. But don’t worry about that too much — remember Wins Above Replacement, and think how many guys the Mets have run out in recent seasons who definitely qualified as “Replacement.”
What do we see? We probably remember that Beltran struggled in 2005, and WAR backs that up: He put up a 2.2 WAR, which is OK but by no means impossible to find, and certainly not what you want from the first year of a seven-year megadeal. But after that? Holy God. In 2006 his WAR was 7.5, and the only player who did better was named Pujols. In 2007 he put up a 5.1 WAR; in 2008 he was ninth in all of MLB with a 7.1 WAR. In 2009 his WAR was 3.1, injuries and all. That’s two monster seasons, a very good one, one that was probably better than you figured, and one that was underwhelming but OK. Here are the Mets’ all-time leading hitters as measured by WAR through June. Beltran’s fourth, right up there with Keith Hernandez. And if you convert the stat to WAR per 700 plate appearances, he stands alone. Fangraphs also tries to assign a dollar value to players based on their WAR, which you’ll find at the bottom of Beltran’s player page. I know advanced-stats folks consider those valuations kind of wonky (and all advanced stats are works in progress), but it’s still a useful guide for figuring out if a player is worth his salary. By Fangraph’s calculations, Beltran has been worth the money and then some.
So that’s Carlos Beltran according to statistics. Now let’s wade into the intangibles, which is where the conversation about Beltran often becomes full of yeah buts.
I’ve never particularly understood this. I’ve always thought that the complaints about Beltran lacking passion were based on fan interpretations of his body language, which seems slightly more reliable than phrenology in assessing a ballplayer. In the field Beltran has always been superb at positioning himself, reading balls off the bat and taking that first step necessary to be in position to corral drives into the gap or against the fence. If his first step were slower and he had to lunge or dive for balls instead of catching them on the run, would that be playing with passion? If he tarted up good catches with hotdoggy pratfalls, a la the loathsome Jim Edmonds, would that be intensity? Was his stumbling, game-saving snag against the Astros halfway up Tal’s Hill unsatisfying because he didn’t grit his teeth or come off the field whooping and hollering? Why isn’t his headfirst collision with Mike Cameron — which could have ended both careers if it had gone slightly differently — remembered as proof of his grit or toughness?
I suspect Beltran’s entire Mets career would be regarded differently if he’d swung and missed the final pitch of the 2006 playoffs instead of taking it for a called third strike, even though it would have changed absolutely nothing. But if this proves anything, it’s that a lot of fans are crazy. Being fooled by a 12-to-6 knee-buckler of a curve isn’t a sign of passivity, but a sign that a very good pitcher made a perfect pitch. Players get to two strikes, look fastball and get erased by perfectly thrown curveballs every goddamn day. Sometimes it happens while you’re in the can or around the corner getting Doritos, and sometimes it happens in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the League Championship Series. Should Beltran have swung too late to show he really cared? Should he have smashed himself in the face with the bat to express his grief? Does the case against Carlos Beltran really come down to the fact that he doesn’t grimace enough? And if it does, whom is that an indictment of: Beltran, or columnists and fans who judge a player’s value to a team by facial expressions?
The Walter Reed incident was particularly distasteful on many levels. Mets officials anonymously threw Beltran, Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez — three players they were unhappy with — to the wolves, setting them up for a public shaming. (Here’s Matthew Callan’s great post from back then.) Beltran, though, had a reason he hadn’t been there — he’d had a lunch meeting about a school his foundation was building in Puerto Rico. I never heard a New York scribe challenge that, even though it would have sold a ton of papers. A couple of days later, Beltran’s agent Scott Boras had this to say about Beltran’s treatment by the Mets: “The team has a duty to run the organization professionally. Giving the players [short] notice, knowing they have plans or obligations in their personal lives, and then to admonish the players without checking, it’s totally unprofessional on all fronts.” I don’t particularly like Boras, but take a moment to think back on how many times the Mets have come across as dysfunctional and/or disorganized in recent years and tell me he’s wrong.
Really? Beltran returned early from knee surgery because he was worried about his 2011 performance? Beyond the character assassination by generalization (“all athletes”), it’s not even a logical charge. If Lupica were correct about Beltran’s motives (he doesn’t offer a shred of evidence that he is), wouldn’t Beltran have been better served sitting out for all of 2010 to avoid putting up subpar numbers and potentially reinjuring himself? Couldn’t you just as plausibly claim that Beltran talked himself into thinking he was more ready than he was because he loves to play baseball and wanted to help his teammates? I don’t know that that’s true, but why is Lupica’s version more believable than that?
And if you care about such things, Beltran has evidenced plenty of passion in talking with reporters. He’s the guy who called the Mets the team to beat in 2008. Just two days ago, he was the one who was most upset with Chase Utley’s takeout slide of Ruben Tejada, and admitted trying to take out Utley and Wilson Valdez. Contrast that with, say, David Wright’s purse-lipped, vaguely corporate bromides after awful losses, and ask which player you’d expect to be crucified for a lack of passion.
Carlos Beltran is one of the greatest players to ever wear a Mets uniform. If there’s anything shameful about his years in New York, it’s not that he had a subpar first season by his high standards, or that he got fooled by a great curveball when we really wish he hadn’t, or that he had the misfortune to be betrayed by his knee, or that he employs an agent fans dislike, or that he plays baseball with grace and ease instead of flailing Francoeuresque fire. What’s shameful is that he’s been treated shabbily and sometimes viciously by an organization and a fanbase that doesn’t appreciate him.
You said it.
overheard in the shake shack line:
“That’s why I hate the most. He’s supposed to be good; he actually makes more money than Wright!”
Excellent article, and completely dead on.
Why do I have a sad suspicion that in 2015, you’ll be able to write pretty much the same article? All you’ll need to do is do a search and replace and substitute “Bay” for “Beltran”.
Thank you! It is so refreshing to read something intelligent (and accurate!) about Beltran–maybe the most under-appreciated player in Mets history. I especially liked the citation of the 3-9 skid the team was in prior to his return. Don’t these “mouthbreathers” do ANY research? I mean, they couldn’t have looked ONE WEEK in the past??? (The main object of my wrath these days is Butterbean Carlin, who, I know, isn’t really a radio guy anymore. Instead, he is overfilling our TV screens. I think we need a better phrase than mouthbreather to describe him, though, because I am sure there must be some undigested heroes lodged somewhere in one of his chins, making mouthbreathing rather difficult.)
AGREED!! I said something similar about another much maligned NY athlete..My (almost)exact words “You gonna miss him when he’s gone”…Patrcik Ewing.
Perfect example: over the weekend, he retaliates for the Utley slide, and more writers than not say he was being ridiculous and blowing things out of proportion. I’m sure the reaction would’ve been different if it had been Francoeur doing the takeout slide.
Also, thanks for the shoutout!
or imagine if a yankee had done it…especially the shortstop! it would’ve been the play of the month!
One of my favorite baseball axioms: throw out any statistics that happen in April or September. How can you possibly get excited about what he’s doing now, with the season completely in the toilet? In a big spot, is Beltran really the guy you want at bat? Please. He torpedoed the season twice; once when he decided to check in with his doctor in January instead of October ’09, and again when he came back and played miserably defensively and offensively. I have nothing against Beltran as a person, but as a key part of this team, it was up to him to make sure he was healthy in the off season and didn’t come back until he was ready. He gets paid a fortune to do this. And management should have found a way to ease him in to the lineup rather than force him in and make it impossible for him to succeed. He was one of the most productive players to ever don a Mets uniform, but I’m tired of waiting for him to make a meaningful contribution to the team.
I can get excited because he finally looks like he has his timing and his legs back. Agree on the dangers of believing in September, but that clock doesn’t apply to a guy coming back from an injury: You want to see if he can get back to being himself. In that regard, Beltran’s September is an exciting sign, yes.
As for the other stuff, I think I covered it in the post.
Guess I’m the minority here…I think players like Beltran have been the problem with this team over the past few seasons. I see him as having a ton of potential, but also being too selfish and too fragile. Beltran will always be remembered as one of my least favorite players. Can’t wait to see that prima donna go. Sorry Jay.
see Jason, forget advanced WAR calculations, the SELF stat that only certain people have access to is what tells the whole story.
I mean, obviously the only reason he hasn’t begged out of CF for RF in favor of Pagan is because he wants all those extra fly balls to himself. The plaque he makes for himself after every season would look sloppy with Carlos Beltran CF/RF on it.
Hi Jason,
Up to now I wasn’t either a Carlos Beltran detractor or an advocat – just saw him as a good and underappreciated player. I still think our expectations were raised too high when the Mets overpaid him for that seven year contract but nevertheless that does not take away from the talent he has. And because of that contract I thought the fans were unfair to him and understood why he had no desire to take that curtain call early in 2006. And when his first at-bat this year was accompanied by a luke-warm reception. I just shrugged those things off because (I will admit) of my resentment to those who sign with Scott Boras and leave teams no matter what in order to get the highest contract. So when it came to Beltran, I was indifferent.
But thanks to your post and tipping us off to that of Matt Callan’s, I’ve suddenly turned into a supporter. Should have put two and two together knowing how poorly the Wilpons treat their fans and former managers that Carlos was receiving the same type treatment. I recognized this immediately last winter when Beltran opted for surgery instead of leaving the decision to Met brass who look at health care for their players the same way insurance companies do. And yes, I was taken back by that Walter Reed incident until you brought to our attention that he was already committed to important charitable meetings and that he has made numerous trips there on his own.
Again, this is more another indictment against the Wilpons. You referred to “Dave Howard’s word games about obstructed views” and added “I wasn’t inclined to believe a word the Mets said”. How right you are. There were camera shots from upper left behind third base from Colorado on TBS – was able to see left field. Same thing with those from Philly. Continue that in Washington. Yet Howard has the audacity telling us obstructed views are typical in most new parks?
It’s hard to root for the guys wearing the orange and blue when one resents the organization they play for – but we still must separate ownership from the working class. That’s the only reason I still watched the game in Philly without even switching over to the other sports venues that were avaiable. It’s the uniform, one I’ll always be proud to support.
It’s stunning that someone like Carlos Beltran, who played hard, and hurt, who played with that face mask after the collision with Mike Cameron, who made those improbable catches that any other player would have had to leap and stress and injure themselves to make, is called a prima donna, but yet, Jeff Francoeur is a hero to these people.
You get what you deserve.
I’ve never warmed to Beltran, but since that’s beside the point I have defended him in a similar fashion that you just did: i.e. the man produces. When a retard like Steve Philips labelled him as a non-winner, I went nuts. Why do failures get such prominent soapboxes? It’s like listening to Matt Millen doing a football game. But I digress.
Unfortunately for him, the 2006 NLCS G7 called strike 3 will hang around his neck for Met fans forever. Sure, Jason and Greg and I (and many of the rest of you) could recited chapter and verse all the failures and poor decisions in that series (I will spare everyone and not do so here.) But he had the last one and there is no escaping it; that’s the way sports work, moments are seared in your memory and elevated above all else, good or bad. Bobby Thompson, Bill Buckner, Lonnie Smith, Kirk Gibson, Francisco Cabrera.
That said, I do feel the Mets should move on and deal him. However, I find that doubtful because he doesn’t have much value and the Mets would most likely be unwilling to eat any portion of his salary. Which very well might lead to Angel Pagan being traded. A prospect that does not sit well with me. But with this team, I have no goddamn idea what they’re going to do.
Thanks for writing this.
Something tells me if he played on the other side of town, the media would praise his quiet, stoic attitude as “the Yankee way”. Nonsense.
Anyone who’d put together an all-time Mets lineup and NOT start Beltran in CF is insane.
Well then, call me insane.
Not taking anything from what Carlos has achieved, but if I had to base it on just one season’s performance, hands down it would be Tommie Agee. He’s 1969 was unbelievable and much more than stats could ever reveal. Whenever a clutch hit, clutch catch or clutch running play was required, Tommie almost always came through. No position player ever affected the outcome of a game for a full season as he did. Game 3 was simply a microcosim of the entire year.
If one goes by overall career performance, then of course, it’s Carlos.
Having not seen Agee for myself in 1969, you have me at a disadvantage. However, I submit Beltran’s 2006 season.
I’m talking career performance anyway. Basing all-time teams on single seasons is too tricky. One could argue (not me, but someone else could) that 1996 Lance Johnson and Bernard Gilkey deserve a spot on the team.
I would take 2006 Beltran over any other Met centerfielder for one year. But the larger question is what will 2011 Beltran deliver?
Not one for “Amen” posts, but if there was one that deserved it, it’s this one.
AMEN!
Carlos Beltran is one of the best players to ever wear a Mets Uniform-hey Idiots-Remember the 2 games in Houston? One where he crashed into the fence at the end of the game and saved the game for the Mets-The other one up the hill is straight away center-Not a gamer-please-The game comes to him-he is a gifted athlete tha plays the game with great grace when he is healthy-I was so sick to my stomich the way that the press treated jeff Francouer-a totally over rated player with a great personality who blew so many rallies this year it was not worth counting-but hey it’s Frenchy-he’s a great guy-Who Gives a Shit!!-he sucked this year and the fans and press fgave him a pass. Beltran was not ready to come back-That was a mistake-If he is with the Mets next year expect a monster year-he’s got that kind of talent-It looks like all the hanging around that Angel Pagan did with him last winter helped Angel-he’s a different ballplayer. Bottom line-After 48 years of being a mets fan-I am fed up with them. they will also probably do another bonehead move and try to trade Jose Reyes-another gifted athlete who has had an injury vibe the last 2 years,but is in his prime
It will be awhile before I break out my hard earned cash to pay to see a game at CITI Field-They need to knwo it’s about the ball club not the facility-and BTW-Whom ever designed the dimensions and playing field should be hung out to dry-An incredibly screwed up place to play
Dead on, writers in this town need a story. The
man is extremely talented and some idiots want him to be a ” rah rah” type. Good articel.
The Mets won the World Series with Tommy Agee and a platoon of Wilson/Dykstra (They even went in 1973 and 2000 with Don Hahn and Jay Payton, the definition of replacement players, and yes Willie Mays stood in CF for the Mets.) But while Mookie is my favorite, certainly, Beltran is the best they ever had, day-in and day-out. That said, baseball is a game of memorable moments that get etched in your mind transcending time. Think Agee – catch. Think Wilson – ground ball through the legs. Think Dykstra, home-run inside the right field foul pole in the 1986 playoffs. Think Beltran – called strike 3. Also, unlike Piazza, Beltran never really carried the team. The Mets only really were great during his tenure when another hard-to-like Met, Delgado, was hitting home runs. Thus Beltran was more of a complementary player, probably like Wright, even if he is certainly one of the top 10 position players they ever had. They still need a masher – Prince Fielder is available?
Thoughtful, thorough, and appropriate.
Thank you for this.
Thank you for an outstanding article. The comments section is also much more ‘grown up’ than I see on some other blogs. I am a fan of Beltran. I would not be pained to see Beltran in a Mets uniform in 2011. But the reality (my reality) is that it’s time for the Mets and Beltran to move on. Pay him the whole damn $18.5 and get the best prospects you can and move on. The Mets need to move on from so many players and this is a good place to start. Not as good as Ollie Perez and Castillo, but a good place to start. Get some value, something that will help us in 2012 or 2013. Build up the farm system. Did I say this already? Move on. Why would we drag this out any longer?
What’s most ironic is that many of Beltran’s detractors are the very same people who always prattle on about “playing the game the right way.”
How do you “play the game the right way?” You’re smart. You take pitches, read the bat off the ball, position yourself well defensively. You make the most of your speed. You play hurt if you need to. You don’t complain, you play with grace and professionalism, you give back to the community.
You know who does all of those things? Carlos Beltran. And yet he catches flack from the media, the fans, and, worst of all, the image-obsessed Mets ownership, because he’s not punching Gatorade coolers after every strikeout or something.
Carlos Beltran is a great player and a class act. The Mets’ treatment of him is a pretty good starting point if you want to look at what is wrong with this organization.
Right on!
Beltran’s OPS September ’08: 1.086! His best month that year. August 08? .906 OPS.
What about 2007? Sept: 882 OPS, including 8 homers. Aug: 1.193 OPS! Maybe others choked, or performed poorly under pressure down the stretch, but Mr Beltran did not wilt at bat, while playing the best center field in the game.
Beltran is the best center fielder in Mets’ history. It’s a shame that the fans have not valued him for the great player he is. And it’s sickening if indeed the backstabbing of Beltran has been coming from the top (Jeff on down). It tells you a lot about these clowns that are running the team and pretending to be leaders. I was just a kid back then, but this kind of stuff smells like the waning days of M Donald Grant in the mid to late 70s.
Matt Cerrone today wrote that if Carlos goes elsewhere the fans will have the same relationship with him — essentially one of disappointment ultimately, hinting at his so-called lack of passion. I can’t disagree more. For whatever reason, we have not appreciated one of the top center fielders of his generation, a player whose career was starting to look like a Hall of Famer’s until the knee issue. It’s more about us than about the player. And surely that doesn’t mean that other teams’ fans will be as foolish as a good swath of Mets’ nation has been.
One thing to add to Jason’s article. The Mets mismanaged Beltran’s knee injury from the start last year. Remember that they had him play through the pain for almost two months. At that point, the pain was getting worse — cartiledge was almost all gone — & a subsequent MRI showed that, & he was shut down for the year.
It’s not unreasonable to at least consider that other organizations might have acted more proactively: e.g.: Beltran undergoing the January surgery in May or June of last year.
Beltran’s decision in January had to be partly a result of his feeling that he and the club screwed things up in 2009 re. the knee. I include Carlos because those decisions are partly his responsibility too. And he did take on that responsibility in January and did what he thought was best for his long-term health as ball player, even if the Mets were still pussyfooting around.
Just think of when he’s playing for another team and he comes to Citi Field for the first time. I imagine you’ll see a half-standing-o, half-boo reaction. What a shame if that were to happen.
Let’s hope he gets a few standing o’s on Sunday 10/3, just in case it’s his last game with us.
I was previewing the upcoming season over a beer last spring with another Life Long Mets fan who asked me what I thought about OUR outlook for the year(2010), and I said to him the same thing I said last year and the year before that: We’ll go as far as Beltran takes us. If we can come up with 4 quality starters and Beltran is healthy we have a shot at the playoffs. And here is my reply all ready to go for next March: What do I think of our Mets this year (2011), We’ll go as far as beltran takes us. If we can come up with 4 quality starters and Beltran is healthy we have a real shot at making the 2011 playoffs.
Thank you. This is something that needs to be expressed, and only here can it be expressed this clearly and articulately.
Back in 2006, one of the shouted criticisms of the called third strike was that Adam Wainwright was a rookie pitcher and couldn’t possibly be all that good. Nonsense even then. Now that he’s proven himself to be one of the best pitchers in the league and a perennial Cy Young contender, you’d think that the called third strike would be seen in a new perspective, but that level of thought seems to be beyond the capacity of the loudest voices. Wainwright has since frozen lots of great hitters who knew exactly what they were up against and made them look just as bad.
Beltran is both one of the best players and one of the classiest individuals the Mets have ever had. But sometimes I think the team and the media and even many of the fans would rather have Bobby Bonilla. At least he was vocal, right?
“But the analysis from the troglodyte wing of the city’s columnists”
Wait… are you implying that there’s a non-troglodyte wing?
I think most of the city’s beat guys/columnists are pretty good: I like Adam Rubin, Andy Martino, Joel Sherman, Mike Vaccaro, David Lennon and David Waldstein a lot. (I’m probably missing a couple of good ones, as well as deliberately not naming a few folks I think are appalling, mean-spirited hacks.)
There’s still a pack mentality sometimes, but I’m sympathetic: To a certain extent that’s showbiz.
war? ops? baseball has to many made up stats. Somebody call the wahmbulance! Carlos Beltran and his 18 mil per year are not appreciated enough. Great point about Wright though.”We will re-evaluate how we go into 2cd”.You can start next week you overated gold glover.
It’s undeserved, but Beltran has somehow become the whipping boy for the late season failures in 2007 and 2008. The called strike three in Game 7 of the NLCS in 2006 probably contributes to that image. But Beltran has – – by far – – been the most consistent player of his Mets generation.
I will admit I never had warm feelings for him, but that changed when management (yes, YOU, Jeff W.) made him into a sympathetic figure last winter. If Beltran can be faulted for anything from that situation, it’s listening the the team’s medical advisers for as long as he did. You know, the same medical advisers who adhere to that old physicians’ bromide, “starve a cold, feed a fever, fly a concussion cross country.” I hope Beltran stays a Met in 2011, has a great year next year, and puts management in the uncomfortable position of having to make an unpopular decision.
I like Carlos Beltran. I’m proud that he stood up for Tejada. I look forward to the outfield of Bay, Beltran and Pagan being BIG in 2011. Let’s go, Mets!
[…] article by Jason Fry on Carlos Beltran. Reminds me of my time in Navy Band Orlando. There was trumpet player who played very cleanly. […]
Beltran was brought in here to be THE MAN after his amazing playoff run in Houston and he hasn’t won squat. Not all his fault of course but hungry Mets fans expected so much more out of him. What we got was a better version of Kevin McReynolds with the same “i’m getting paid either way” attitude. Turns out he was ill-suited for NYC and this fan base. Maybe that’s not fair because he is a good player, but it’s the truth. Many Mets fans just don’t like him.
“He has a WAR right up there with Keith Hernandez.” Another overhyped statistic. Hmm – wonder why Keith was much more successful and beloved by Mets fans. Maybe it’s an intangible called passion, which Beltran is lacking.
Another thing – If I had a dollar for every time I saw him positioned on the warning track…
nailed it.
[…] this offseason while the clock ticked stubbornly slowly on Perez and Castillo and even our beloved Beltran was not really a viable option. If we were one star pitcher away from meaningful games in April and […]