There are many previews of the 2015 World Series that pits the New York Mets against the Kansas City Royals floating around. I’ll go with Rob Emproto’s. Rob (Rob E. in the comments section) is my friend of 23 years as of this month — Torborg to Terry; Gooden to deGrom; “we just got Tony Fernandez” to “we shouldn’t get rid of Wilmer Flores”. He understands baseball as well as anybody I’ve ever known. I don’t always agree with his conclusions, but I always assume they’re well-founded and I inevitably go back and check my proverbial math if he’s come up with a different answer from mine.
Rob shared a brief World Series analysis this morning with the longstanding email group we’ve been a part of since the last time the Mets were in the Fall Classic. I liked it enough to want to share it with you. Rob said that would be OK by him. If Rob says it’s OK, then it must be.
Here, then, is The Rob Emproto World Series preview.
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The Royals are a really good team, and they do everything right, but their starting pitching isn’t strong. The question here is, “Can the Royals keep doing all those right things offensively against elite pitchers that they haven’t faced before?” You’re talking about guys with stuff AND command, not just hard-throwers. If they are able to run up pitch counts and get the starters out of the game early while their own pitchers keep the game close, the Mets will have a problem. By the way, the Mets are familiar with all the Royals starters except Ventura as they are all ex-NLers.
The old adages are: “Good pitching beats good hitting” and “When hitters are seeing pitchers for the first time, the pitcher has the advantage.” Many people are betting that the Royals are going to turn that around, and that their experience last year will trump the Met pitchers’ inexperience this year. I really haven’t seen any indication that these guys are going to fold. They went head-to-head with Kershaw and Greinke, played a deciding game in L.A. vs. Greinke, played a loaded Cubs lineup that swept them during the season, beat the hottest pitcher in baseball, and won two games on the road in a building they were 0-for-the-last-two-years in. It’s not like the road has been soft.
Yes, the Royals get the bat on the ball and move guys over and run. They are going to have to do that against Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard and Matz. All the other parts of their game hinge on them having good at-bats against those guys (and stringing them together), while Volquez, Cueto, Ventura, and Chris Young match them. I’m biased of course, but that seems to be asking a lot. Also, keep in mind the Mets have faced three non-elite pitchers so far. They knocked Brett Anderson out after 3, Jason Hammel out in the second, and Kyle Hendricks pitched OK but only made it through 4. They’re not just PITCHING; the Mets are doing a lot of things well, too.
Last year the Royals faced Bumgarner, Peavy, Hudson, Vogelsong. This ain’t gonna be the same. This is going to be like facing Bumgarner every game. If both teams are at the top of their games, the Mets should have the advantage.
The Royals are excellent, and they can certainly win. But if I were a neutral betting man (I am neither), you bet on the pitching here (and the disparity between the starting pitching).