DATE: June 18, 2021
FROM: Department of Analytic Analysis
TO: Luis Rojas
RE: Upcoming Schedule
As you know, previous postponements have us playing a day-night doubleheader tomorrow (Saturday) in Washington as well as a single-admission doubleheader at Citi Field on Monday, meaning we face a gauntlet of five games in a span of approximately 58 hours. Even though four of those games are scheduled to last only seven innings, this presents us with a challenge regarding resources, or “players”. Complicating this challenge is the scheduled Friday night game tonight at Nationals Park.
We have discerned through proprietary calculus the most desirable manner at which to proceed for Friday night’s game so as to best preserve our players and their finite energy for the games directly thereafter. It is outlined below.
Please implement this plan with minimal managerial improvisation.
1) Pitch Joey Lucchesi [1] into the sixth inning. We have revised our previous metrics and concluded Lucchesi will not physically disintegrate should he pitch beyond a fifth inning. We have also discovered the “churve” is an actual pitch, not just an unpleasant sound our announcers make every five days.
2) Alert our fielders to the possibility of ground balls that can be converted into double plays. Numerous simulations confirm the likelihood that two outs are twice as good as one.
3) Our hitters should make contact if possible but otherwise avoid long innings full of rallies and scoring threats. If one of our hitters can drive a ball over the fence, that would be ideal. Otherwise efficient outs — deep fly balls, infield grounders, line drives hit directly to Washington defenders — will be considered optimal.
4) Hitters who reach first base, whether by hit or walk, should try to steal second base. If they are thrown out by Yan Gomes, that eliminates the possibility of an overlong inning; gets us back on the field one batter sooner; and gets us closer to getting the game over without event or incident. If they are safe, please have the next hitter swing for a home run.
5) Use Seth Lugo [2] judiciously. It’s OK for him to get an out. Two or more might be an issue.
6) If Edwin Diaz [3] has something to save, use Edwin Diaz. If Edwin Diaz has nothing to save, use Edwin Diaz. Probability indices indicate it’s bound to work one of these times.
A game managed according to the above plan, supplemented by presumably sound umpiring, delivers us a 50.0% chance of winning or losing by the thinnest of margins. A win would be preferable. A razor’s-edge loss [4] would be regrettable in the short term, but should complete the game in far less than, say, three hours and four minutes that seem so much longer to our home viewers who struggle to maintain alertness, focus and interest on a game that aesthetically goes nowhere and takes forever. The key objective here is to have our resources/players as fresh as possible for the surfeit of makeup games ahead.
Remember, win or lose, this particular Friday night game is just one game. Good luck with the doubleheaders.
cc: Gary DiSarcina, Jeremy Hefner, Dave Jauss, Hugh Quattlebaum